Fourth Anniversary of the War: Statement by the Posle Editorial Collective

The fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is being marked by the most intense and destructive shelling of Ukrainian cities since the war began. Over 1.2 million households have been left without heat or power in the harsh winter, and hundreds of thousands of people have been forced to endure inhumane conditions. Ukrainian retaliatory strikes have, in turn, led to widespread power outages and heating disruptions in Belgorod. Meanwhile, Russian casualties have reached the highest level since the beginning of the war, despite the Russian army advancing only around 15 meters per day. According to Mediazona’s estimates, at least 177,433 Russian soldiers were killed between January 30 and February 13 alone. This count includes only those whose names have been confirmed; the real toll is likely far higher. Nevertheless, there is little reason to believe that these or even greater losses will weaken the Putin regime’s resolve to continue the war.

On the one hand, after four years in which Putinism has hardened into a totalitarian dictatorship, war has become the regime’s only viable mode of existence. It legitimizes the concentration of power and repression, and it binds the elite more tightly to the dictator. More importantly, however, the regime lacks a coherent vision for the country’s future once the war ends and thousands of traumatized, battle-hardened contract soldiers return home — men whose previous high pay and social standing the state will no longer be able to sustain. This looming challenge is one the authorities seem to fear as much as military defeat.

At the same time, the Kremlin sees the growing divide between the EU and the United States, as well as the Trump administration’s willingness to strike a bilateral deal, as an opportunity to achieve the “goals of the special military operation.” When Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the global response was unequivocal: this was an unjustifiable war of aggression, and Ukraine’s resistance was grounded not only in international law but also in basic principles of morality and justice — ideas humanity seemed to have internalized after the Second World War. Four years of bloodshed, however, have brought not only the deaths of hundreds of thousands but also a broader moral shift. Talks initiated by the Trump’s administration treat the war as “senseless” on both sides — something to be brought to an end not by reaffirming international law, but by establishing a new balance of power. In this worldview, there are no victims or aggressors, no right or wrong — only the strong and the weak, with “balance” secured through concessions by the latter.

This moral shift in global public opinion may be Putin’s most significant achievement to date. If it becomes the new consensus, it will almost certainly pave the way for new, more destructive wars fueled by the redrawing of smaller states’ borders and the reassertion of control by great powers over their former colonies. This is why any genuine anti-war movement today must stand firmly and unreservedly with the victims of aggression. This is no longer just about defending Ukraine’s right to independence; it is the only credible way to stop the world from being pulled into a spiral of escalating conflicts.

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